Following the yesterdays result in cricket world cup the tournament turned out to be an interesting one at least for a week ahead unless there is any boring washouts
First lets have a look at the semi final prospects of top four from here onAustralia 10 points – 3 matches left (2 within top 4)
New Zealand 9 points – 4 matches left (2 within top 4)
England 8 points – 3 matches left (All 3 within top 4)
Ind 7 points – 5 matches left (1 within top 4)
Top 4 teams – Total points so far – 34
Therefore there are 11 games left for the top 4 with 7 matches with others and 4 matches each other.
Lets look at the worst case scenario for “Teams in the bottom half of the point table (Bottom 6)”. i.e “Top 4 will” continue to win all games there from here on against “Bottom 6″& end up getting points with narrowest gap among them
This will give 22 more points to the top 4 and it will sum up to = 34+22 = 56
Points per team with narrowest gap among top 4 (which minimizes others entering in) = 56/4 = 14
Here England will need to win all remaining 3 to reach 14
However there is no way all 4 teams can have 14 equal points!!. (Even accounting possibility of “No result/Tie” games within top 4 teams where they wont loose points) . England needed to win all three matches to reach 14 points. The other match left between Top 4 is Australia vs New Zealnd. Win, loose or no result will equal their points Where Australia vs New Zealand all 4 teams cant get 14 at the end. i.e One team will end up with 13 points & other with 15 . On the other hand None of the “Bottom 6” can make it to 14 or even 13.
Lets look at the Teams in the bottom half of the point table semi final prospectsMaximum points team can haveSri Lanka- 12
West Indies – 11
Bangladesh or Pakistan – 11 (Only one can get it while other will have the end of the road, unless end up no result in their game where they could get 10 each)
WI, BAN or PAK will need to win all 3 where as SL need at least two wins with huge net run rate while expecting ‘Upsets’ , ‘ No results/Tie’ or England defeats at least two of their last three games in first round.
By the way 10 points would not assure a semi final spot unless the tournament is wide open with few more Upset wins/ no results over top 4 team at this stage.
Let see how the team will fare during next few days.